The Academy Awards, aka the film world’s Super Bowl, kick off in just a few hours, and of course we have our opinions and predictions like everyone else. But we also wanted to highlight the films we’ve shown that were recognized at last night’s Independent Spirit Awards. In order of their CD start date…

It Felt Like Love – Best Cinematography Nomination (Sean Porter), John Cassavetes Award Nomination (Eliza Hittman, Director)

Only Lovers Left Alive – Best Screenplay Nomination (Jim Jarmusch), Best Female Lead Nomination (Tilda Swinton)

Test – John Cassavetes Award Nomination (Chris Mason Johnson, Director)

Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Best Feature Winner, Best Director Nomination (Alejandro G. Iñárritu), Best Male Lead Winner (Michael Keaton), Best Supporting Female Nomination (Emma Stone), Best Supporting Male Nomination (Edward Norton), Best Cinematography Winner (Emmanuel Lubezki)

CITIZENFOUR – Best Documentary Winner (Laura Poitras, Director)

Appropriate Behavior – Best First Screenplay Nomination (Desiree Akhavan)

Little Accidents – Best First Screenplay Nomination (Sara Colangelo)

In addition, Rinko Kikuchi was nominated for Best Female Lead for her work in Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter, which we’ve just confirmed to start April 3. And we’ve got the winner in that category, Julianne Moore for Still Alice, starting this Friday, February 27 in Maps to the Stars.

Okay…now on to the Oscars…nothing this year is giving us the absolute certainty we had about Dallas Buyers Club last year. But these are pretty good bets if you ask us: [UPDATED with actual winners in bold]

BEST PICTURE
We have a soft spot in our hearts for both Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, but Boyhood will win.
[To our surprise, Birdman won it.]

BEST DIRECTOR
Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman.

BEST ACTOR
Tough call. Michael Keaton or Eddie Redmayne.

BEST ACTRESS
Julianne Moore. It would have been nice to see Scarlett Johansson’s name on this list as well.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This has been J.K. Simmons‘ award for a while now, he just needs to stop by and pick it up.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emma Stone was astonishingly good in Birdman, arguably the backbone of the entire film, but it looks like Patricia Arquette is going to win.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Could Birdman and Boyhood cancel each other out and leave us with The Grand Budapest Hotel? [Ooops!]

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Whiplash or Imitation Game. Big snub: Gone Girl

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
We are hoping against hope that Song of the Sea wins…it’s absolutely gorgeous, evocative, and carries an important environmental message without becoming heavy-handed, but we have the feeling How To Train Your Dragon 2 is going to take this category. [How wrong we were…Big Hero 6 took this prize]

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Ida

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
CITIZENFOUR

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman. It’s a travesty that Roger Deakins has never taken home an Oscar in this category, but this year doesn’t look good either.

BEST FILM EDITING
Probably Boyhood. [Surprise! Whiplash took this.]

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Grand Budapest Hotel, though Into The Woods has an outside chance. Yes! Milena Canonero!

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Much-overlooked Alexandre Desplat (7 Oscar noms in 9 years, no wins yet) is nominated twice this year, for Grand Budapest Hotel and Imitation Game. He could win for one of those, but we think it’s more likely that Jóhann Jóhansson takes this for The Theory of Everything. [Finally…Desplat for Grand Budapest Hotel!]

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Glory” from Selma.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Interstellar

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING
Wouldn’t it be fun if Guardians of the Galaxy won? [Nope! Grand Budapest Hotel]

BEST SOUND MIXING
Whiplash

BEST SOUND EDITING
Birdman should win, but American Sniper probably will.

[Results: 16 out of 21 categories = 76%. Better luck next year!]